Germany is entering the winter heating season with natural-gas storage levels well below its official target, leaving Europe’s largest economy with a smaller buffer as colder weather moves across the continent and energy prices remain elevated.
Gas reserves in Germany were 61.17% full as of Friday, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data, compared with a government goal of about 70% by November 1. Germany’s economy ministry said on Friday that the country would miss the target. Data for November 1 was not expected until after the weekend.
Cold weather is arriving as inventories lag
The shortfall comes as a cold snap is forecast to increase demand for gas used in heating. Average temperatures in Berlin, Frankfurt and Munich are expected to fall 2C to 4C below normal, according to Vaisala meteorologist Matthew Dross. Germany’s government forecaster, DWD, said temperatures in southern and eastern parts of the country could drop below freezing.
Germany’s storage position is also below the European Union average of 75%. That matters particularly for Germany because its energy-intensive manufacturing sector makes the country sensitive to sustained increases in fuel costs and supply constraints. State-owned energy company SEFE increased purchases during the past month in an effort to raise inventories, but those efforts have not been enough to meet the official threshold.
- German gas storage: 61.17% full as of Friday
- November 1 government target: about 70%
- European Union average: 75%
- European gas futures: above €100 a megawatt-hour last week
Prices reflect supply and weather risks
European natural-gas prices have tripled this year, according to the report, as the Iran war disrupts global energy trade and uncertainty over the conflict’s duration complicates efforts to replenish storage. European gas futures moved above €100 a megawatt-hour last week for the first time since 2022, amid concerns that the conflict could cause further disruption to global supplies. Prices remain below their record levels.
Weather conditions could add pressure to the energy system beyond heating demand. A high-pressure pattern is expected to bring calm, cloudy conditions and periods of limited wind, a combination known as Dunkelflaute that can reduce generation from wind and solar facilities. Lower renewable output can increase reliance on gas-fired power plants and other sources of electricity during periods of weak wind and sunlight.
Germany’s energy security has improved but remains exposed
The current situation recalls the energy crisis four years ago, when the war in Ukraine disrupted pipeline-gas supplies from Russia and hit Germany particularly hard after decades of dependence on Russian fuel. Germany has since taken steps to strengthen energy security, including efforts to diversify supplies and improve its ability to import gas. The level of storage entering this winter shows that those measures have not eliminated the country’s exposure to weather and international supply shocks.
Italy, another European Union member, has criticized Berlin for not doing enough to replenish inventories this year. The immediate pressure will depend on temperatures, consumption and the availability of imported gas as winter demand develops. For German manufacturers and other large energy users, the combination of below-target storage, reduced renewable generation and elevated wholesale prices keeps the region’s energy costs closely tied to weather and geopolitical developments.
