OPEC+ will keep its December oil-production targets unchanged, extending a three-month pause as the group contends with export disruptions linked to the US-Iran war and prepares for a more consequential decision on its 2027 production framework.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman reached the decision during an online meeting on Sunday, November 1, 2026, according to OPEC. The seven core members had been expected to leave the targets unchanged after months of supply disruption and uncertainty over how quickly affected exports and infrastructure can recover.
Although Gulf producers have been increasing exports after months of disruption, Reuters reported that most of the seven countries are still producing below their assigned targets. That gap between nominal quotas and actual output leaves the group managing more than a formal production schedule: operational constraints and disrupted trade routes are also limiting the barrels reaching the market.
“Today's decision was the easy one,” Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad, told Reuters.
Leon said the larger test would come at the group’s November 29 ministerial meeting, when all OPEC+ members are due to consider the framework for 2027. The meeting will take place as producers assess the war’s effect on Middle East capacity, the recovery of flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of a surplus if disrupted supply returns.
The production policy behind the pause
The seven countries increased their output targets through much of 2026 while unwinding a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day cut agreed in 2023. That phased rollback was completed in September. OPEC+ then kept its targets unchanged for October and November before confirming the same approach for December.
A separate layer of reductions remains in place through the end of 2026. Those cuts total about 2 million barrels per day and cover most members of the wider group. The relationship between those reductions, the seven countries’ required production levels and actual output will be central to the next quota decision.
| Policy item | Status |
|---|---|
| December targets | Unchanged from the previous month |
| 2023 cut rollback | 1.65 million barrels per day completed in September 2026 |
| Remaining cuts | About 2 million barrels per day through the end of 2026 |
| Next OPEC+ meeting | November 29, 2026 |
Capacity review will shape 2027 quotas
Before setting new baselines for 2027, OPEC+ must complete a review of members’ production capacity during the fourth quarter. Those baselines will determine future quotas and influence how the group plans to unwind the remaining cuts, according to Reuters’ report.
The capacity review takes place against a particularly uncertain supply backdrop. The conflict has disrupted projects intended to expand production capacity across the Middle East, while export interruptions have complicated the group’s ability to translate targets into physical supply. The seven members will continue meeting monthly to review market conditions, but the November 29 gathering is expected to carry greater significance because it will address the next year’s framework rather than only the following month’s target.
OPEC+ consists of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia. In recent years, monthly output decisions have been made by the seven countries involved in Sunday’s meeting; the United Arab Emirates participated in that process until leaving OPEC in May. All 21 members of the wider group are scheduled to meet on November 29.
