OPEC+ is expected to leave its December oil-production targets unchanged when seven core members meet on Sunday, November 1, according to three people familiar with the discussions cited by Reuters on October 27. No final decision has been reached, and the group has not formally announced its policy for December.
The meeting will bring together Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman. The countries have coordinated production adjustments during 2026 as the alliance has worked to manage crude supplies and gradually unwind earlier restrictions.
Targets and physical supply have diverged
The expected decision comes after OPEC+ completed the phased reversal in September of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day in production cuts originally introduced in 2023. The authorized increase, however, has not produced an equivalent rise in physical crude supplies.
Disruptions linked to the conflict involving Iran have constrained exports from several Gulf producers. Although regional shipments have recovered from earlier interruptions, transportation restrictions, vulnerabilities affecting infrastructure and continuing security concerns remain obstacles to a full return to normal export volumes.
| Issue | Figure or status |
|---|---|
| Expected December decision | Existing production targets likely to remain in place |
| Production cuts reversed in September | Approximately 1.65 million barrels per day |
| Participants in the November 1 meeting | Seven OPEC+ members |
Why the gap matters
The difference between official targets and actual production has become an important factor for crude markets. A higher quota can indicate that additional supply is available in principle, but its immediate effect depends on whether producers can increase output and deliver barrels to customers.
For refiners, constrained supplies can raise feedstock costs and make procurement more difficult, especially when transport interruptions limit access to preferred crude grades. The same conditions can affect upstream producers outside OPEC+, which may benefit from elevated benchmark prices while also facing higher operating costs and greater market volatility.
The seven-country meeting follows months of efforts to restore production previously restricted under voluntary agreements. Maintaining the existing targets would preserve the group’s current framework while supply disruptions continue to limit the amount of crude reaching the market. Reuters reported that the anticipated position remains subject to change before the meeting and that OPEC+ has not yet issued a formal announcement.
- OPEC+ members are expected to keep December production targets unchanged.
- About 1.65 million barrels per day in cuts introduced in 2023 were reversed in September.
- Regional disruptions have kept actual supply below the levels implied by official quotas.
